Industry suits sound off on who's gonna win and who DESERVES to win.
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Date: Feb 12, 2000 Grammy voting is a bit like the New Hampshire primary: Its outcome is hard to predict, it's full of partisan politics, and Gary Bauer doesn't stand a chance. But unlike in a primary, Grammys are determined almost exclusively by biased insiders, and record-company voting blocs--large groups of employees who vote according to a party line--usually play a major role. To find out what's really going on in key categories of this year's Grammys, we surveyed industry execs, who traded their insights and ire for anonymity. RECORD OF THE YEAR
-Backstreet Boys, "I Want It That Way" Survey Says: Santana. "TLC's out because [Arista chief] Clive Davis will swing all the BMG and Arista votes to Santana," says one BMG insider. "With Ricky you've got the entire Sony voting bloc. But 'Smooth' is a phenomenon. And in picking Santana, the older voters can actually vote for somebody they feel like they know. Right now Santana's riding the wave." An exec at a rival label is more blunt: "This will be just another way to pacify Clive Davis by the folks who almost fired him. You'd think a guy who's got a couple points on every Whitney Houston record ever recorded wouldn't need a pity vote." And what about the Backstreet Boys? "Even the most hardened, elitist music cynic knows that's a great pop song," says another bizzer. "But [Grammy voters] will never forget Milli Vanilli, EVER, and if there's even a whiff that they're manufactured, that's gonna be a factor." ALBUM OF THE YEAR
-Backstreet Boys, Millennium Survey Says: Santana. "This is probably the easiest one to predict. Santana makes the older voters feel good." "Santana is like the biggest f---ing wet dream ever for the Grammy voters. It's gonna make Bonnie Raitt look like nothing. He's gonna clean up." What about Diana Krall? "Diana who? Nobody cares. No Grammy for you!" As for TLC: "I'd love to see them win just so we can see 'em claw each other's eyes out on stage. But too many voters are trying to kiss Clive's ass, and Santana will get it." SONG OF THE YEAR
-"Smooth," Itaal Shur and Rob Thomas (songwriter) Survey Says: a toss-up between "Smooth" and "I Want It That Way." "God, this really could be a Santana sweep. In reality, Backstreet should win this category. It was a pretty phenomenal song throughout the entire year. But this looks like Santana." On the other hand: "I actually think this may be a place where the Backstreet Boys have a shot. This category is different because there are more songwriters involved. It's less about record company politics and more about the art of making the record." --Rob Brunner, with additional reporting by Laura Morgan
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